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Conferences

Statistical Methods for Infectious Diseases


 
The Open University Statistics Group

presented a two-day conference on Statistical Methods for Infectious Diseases

held on 23rd-24th May 2012 at the Open University in Milton Keynes, United Kingdom.



From a global perspective, infectious diseases remain a leading cause of morbidity, mortality, loss of livelihoods and social and economic disruption. The last decade has witnessed the emergence of new infections, such as H1N1 swine influenza, and a continuing heavy toll from infections like TB and malaria, but also the introduction of new vaccines, for example against HPV, and progress towards the elimination of some infections, such as polio. Over this period, many new statistical methods, of varying complexity, have been developed to address these challenges.

Statistical Methods for Infectious Diseases
, the 25th rather-more-frequent-than-annual (anniversary) Open University statistics conference, will focus on the statistical problems confronting epidemiologists, and the novel statistical methods that might be brought to bear on them. Thus, the conference is aimed at a broad spectrum of epidemiologists, statisticians and modellers working on the various aspects of infectious disease epidemiology.

The conference will include 18 invited talks and contributed posters on relevant topics. If you wish to present a poster, please complete the relevant section of the registration form. The cost of the conference is £95. This includes registration, refreshments and lunch for both days, and the conference dinner on day one.

The conference will start at 10.30 a.m. on May 23rd and end at 4.00 p.m. on May 24th. It will take place in the Berrill Lecture Theatre on the main Open University campus at Walton Hall, Milton Keynes.

We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Royal Society, the Wolfson Foundation, the Medical Research Council and the Open University.

Organising committee (in alphabetical order): Paddy Farrington, Sara Griffin, Emma Howard, Tracy Johns, Angela Noufaily, and Steffen Unkel.




Confirmed invited speakers (in alphabetical order)
:
  • Karim Anaya-Izquierdo (Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine):
    Estimation of spatial spillover effects in cluster randomized trials

  • Nick Andrews (Statistics Unit, Health Protection Agency, London):
    Using the indirect cohort (Broome) method to estimate vaccine effectiveness in the presence of serotype replacement

  • Simon Cauchemez (Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London):
    Influenza, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology

  • Azra Ghani (Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London):
    Spatial modeling of malaria control and elimination in Africa

  • Gavin Gibson (School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, The Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh):
    Epidemic models with non-standard infection processes

  • Nele Goeyvaerts (Centre for Statistics, Hasselt University, Belgium):
    Multivariate decay models for longitudinal censored maternal antibody levels

  • Neil Hens (Centre for Statistics, Hasselt University, Belgium):
    Estimating infectious disease parameters in a time-heterogeneous setting: hepatitis A in Flanders, Belgium

  • Michael Höhle (Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany):
    Statistical Methods for Interpreting the Epidemic Curve of the STEC O104:H4 Outbreak in Germany, 2011

  • Valerie Isham (President of the Royal Statistical Society and Department of Statistical Science, University College London):
    The effect of population structure on transmission of infection

  • Mirjam Kretzschmar (Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, and Julius Centre for Health Sciences & Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, The Netherlands):
    Two sides of a coin: mathematical and statistical modeling of infectious diseases

  • Andrea Mann (Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine):
    Modeling influenza incidence data using multivariate hidden Markov models

  • Piero Manfredi (Department of Statistics and Mathematics applied to Economics, University of Pisa, Italy):
    Hope-Simpson's progressive immunity hypothesis finally explains Zoster data well

  • Philip O'Neill (School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham):
    Recent developments in Bayesian inference for infectious disease models

  • Tim Peto (John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford):
    Clostridium Difficile transmission in Oxfordshire: comparison between network analyses and MCMC modelling approaches.

  • Anne Presanis (Institute of Public Health, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge):
    Evidence synthesis for infectious diseases

  • Kate Soldan (Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, London):
    Early evaluation of the impact of the HPV vaccination programme in England

  • Steffen Unkel (Medical Statistics Group, Institute of Medical Informatics, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Germany):
    Time-varying frailty models and the estimation of heterogeneities in transmission of infectious diseases

  • Jacco Wallinga (Centre for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands):
    Searching for variables that explain the variability in transmission intensity of influenza


Abstracts for invited oral presentations and contributed posters can be found here.



Timetable
Day 1 - Wednesday 23rd May

09.30 Registration desk opens
10.00 Coffee and pastries
10.30 Opening: Professor Tim Blackman, Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research and Scholarship

10.45–12.30 Session 1: Keynote + Spatial modelling (Chair: Paddy Farrington)
10.45 Talk 1 (Keynote) - Mirjam Kretzschmar: Two sides of a coin: mathematical and statistical modeling of infectious diseases
11.30 Talk 2 - Azra Ghani: Spatial modeling of malaria control and elimination in Africa
12.00 Talk 3 - Karim Anaya-Izquierdo: Estimation of spatial spillover effects in cluster randomized trials

12.30–14.00 Lunch + posters

14.00–15.30 Session 2: Assessing interventions (Chair: Angela Noufaily)
14.00 Talk 4 - Michael Höhle: Statistical Methods for Interpreting the Epidemic Curve of the STEC O104:H4 Outbreak in Germany, 2011
14.30 Talk 5 - Kate Soldan: Early evaluation of the impact of the HPV vaccination programme in England
15.00 Talk 6 - Nick Andrews: Using the indirect cohort (Broome) method to estimate vaccine effectiveness in the presence of serotype replacement

15.30–16.00 Tea and biscuits + posters

16.00–17.30 Session 3: Estimating incidence and susceptibility (Chair: Steffen Unkel)
16.00 Talk 7 - Anne Presanis: Evidence synthesis for infectious diseases
16.30 Talk 8 - Piero Manfredi: Hope-Simpson's progressive immunity hypothesis finally explains Zoster data well
17.00 Talk 9 - Nele Goeyvaerts: Multivariate decay models for longitudinal censored maternal antibody levels

19.00 Reception followed by conference dinner at the Mercure Parkside hotel.

Day 2 - Thursday 24th May

09.00–10.30 Session 4: Statistical seroepidemiology (Chair: Angela Noufaily)
09.00 Talk 10 - Simon Cauchemez: Influenza, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology
09.30 Talk 11 - Steffen Unkel: Time-varying frailty models and the estimation of heterogeneities in transmission of infectious diseases
10.00 Talk 12 - Niel Hens: Estimating infectious disease parameters in a time-heterogeneous setting: hepatitis A in Flanders, Belgium

10.30–11.00 Coffee and biscuits + posters

11.00–12.45 Session 5: Keynote + Transmission and networks (Chair: Steffen Unkel)
11.00 Talk 13 (Keynote) - Philip O'Neill: Recent developments in Bayesian inference for infectious disease models
11.45 Talk 14 - Tim Peto: Clostridium Difficile transmission in Oxfordshire: comparison between network analyses and MCMC modelling approaches.
12.15 Talk 15 - Valerie Isham: The effect of population structure on transmission of infection

12.45–14.15 Lunch + posters

14.15–15.45 Session 6: Modelling epidemics (Chair: Paddy Farrington)
14.15 Talk 16 - Gavin Gibson: Epidemic models with non-standard infection processes
14.45 Talk 17 - Andrea Mann: Modeling influenza incidence data using multivariate hidden Markov models
15.15 Talk 18 - Jacco Wallinga: Searching for variables that explain the variability in transmission intensity of influenza

15.45 Conference wrap-up (Paddy Farrington)

16.00 End + tea and biscuits