Room No: 111A, Mathematics & Computing
Phone: (+44) 01908
655974
E-mail: p.h.garthwaite@open.ac.uk
Fax: (+44) 01908 652140
Long-standing interest in subjective probability assessment, both the theoretical development of elicitation methods, experimental work with substantive experts to improve methods, and their application in practice. Elicitation software page.
General interest in Bayesian methods. Recent work uses MCMC methods for multivariate meta analysis, the analysis of misclassified binary data, and the analysis of experiments to determine the selectivity of fishing nets.
Monte Carlo and bootstrap methods. Joint work with Stephen Buckland developed a method for constructing Monte Carlo confidence intervals that is attracting attention. For example, the method is examined and recommended by Carpenter (JRSSB, 61 (1999), 159–172) and Matsui and Ohashi (Statist. Med., 18 (1999), 2409–2420).
Collaborative work with Professor John Crawford to develop statistical techniques of special relevance to psychologists.
Analysis of mark-recapture experiments.
The evaluation of new health technologies, particularly the development of statistical methods that allow for the effect of learning during trials. Work was supported by a grant of £98000 in 1998-2000 (other co-holders were A M Grant, I T Russell and A Monk) and it is continuing through a PhD studentship funded by the MRC.
Partial least squares and other biased regression methods, together with the analysis of near infrared spectra.
Inter-disciplinary research, notably in animal and human nutrition, medicine and psychology.
PhD thesis won the L J Savage prize in 1983, an award given annually by the North-American Seminar Group on Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics to a doctoral dissertation in these areas. (Prize winners listed under ISBA awards at www.bayesian.org).
Supervisor: Iain Pirie, PhD (1996). A comparison of some alternatives to least squares multiple regression.
Supervisor: Shafeeqah A Al-Awadhi, PhD (1997). Elicitation of prior distributions for a multivariate normal distribution.
Joint-supervisor: Grietje Holtrop, PhD (1998). Statistical modelling of the selectivity of a fishing gear.
Joint-supervisor: Kwaku A Nkyi, PhD (1999) An integrated growth and yield model for the tropical high forests of Ghana
Joint-supervisor: Craig Ramsay, PhD (2000) Assessing the learning curves of health technologies
Joint-supervisor: Julie Burrett, PhD (2003). Identification of randomised trials for inclusion in meta-analyses of treatments for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, and investigation of the factors affecting publication.
Joint-supervisor: Sofia Fonseca, PhD (2004). Modelling the development of muscle tissue.
Joint-supervisor: Gordon Prescott, PhD (2005). A Bayesian approach to epidemiological studies with misclassification in a binary risk factor.
Joint-supervisor: Emmanuel Mubwandarikwa (fourth-year PhD student).
Joint-supervisor: Christopher Banks (fourth-year PhD student).
Joint-supervisor: Avik Sarkar (fourth-year PhD student).
Supervisor: David Jenkinson (third-year PhD student).
Statistical Inference. P H Garthwaite, I T Jolliffe and B Jones. Second edition, 2002, ISBN 0–19–857226–3. Oxford University Press, Oxford, xii + 328 pages. (First edition: 1995)
Statistical Assessment of the Learning Curves of Health Technologies. C R Ramsay, A M Grant, S A Wallace, P H Garthwaite, A F Monk and I T Russell. Health Technology Assessment, Vol. 5: No. 12 (2001), iv + 98 pages.
Testing for a deficit in single-case studies: Effects of departures from normality. J R Crawford, P H Garthwaite, A Azzalini, D C Howell and K R Laws. Neuropsychologia, 44 (2006), 666-677. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/Neuropsychologia_2006_departures.pdf
Testing for suspected impairments and dissociationsin single-case studies in neuropsychology: evaluation of alternatives using Monte Carlo simulations and revised tests for dissociations. J R Crawford and P H Garthwaite. Neuropsychology, 19 (2005), 318-331. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/PREprints/Neuropsychology_dissociations_tests.pdf
Bayesian analysis of misclassified binary data from a matched case-control study with a validation sub-study. G J Prescott and P H Garthwaite. Statistics in Medicine, 24 (2005), 379-401.
A Bayesian approach to prospective binary outcome studies with misclassification in a binary risk factor. G J Prescott and P H Garthwaite. Statistics in Medicine, 24 (2005), 3463-3477 .
Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. P H Garthwaite, J B Kadane and A O'Hagan. J. American Statistical Association, 100 (2005), 680-701.
Evaluation of criteria for classical dissociations in single-case studies by Monte Carlo simulation. J R Crawford and P H Garthwaite. Neuropsychology, 19 (2005), 664-678. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/PREprints/Neuropsychology_montecarlo_preprint.pdf
A Bayesian mixture model for term re-occurrence and burstiness. A Sarkar, P H Garthwaite and A DeRoeck. Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Computational Natural Language Learning (CoNLL), edited by I Dugan and D Gildea. Association for Computational Linguistics, Ann Arbor (2005), 48-55.
Even very frequent function words do not distribute homogeneously. A DeRoeck, A Sarkar and P H Garthwaite. The International Conference on Recent Advances in Natural Language Processing (RANLP), edited by G Angelova, K Bontcheva, R Mitkov and N Nicolav. INCOMA, Shoumen, Bulgaria (2005), 429-436.
Term re-occurrence measures for analyzing style. A Sarkar, A DeRoeck and P H Garthwaite. Proceedings of the SIGIR 2005 Workshop on Stylistic Analysis of Text for Information Access, edited by S Argamon, J Karlgren and J G Shanahan (2005), ACM Press, United States.
Inferential methods for comparing a single case with a control sample: modified t-tests versus Mycroft et al's (2002) modified ANOVA. J R Crawford, P H Garthwaite, D C Howell and C D Gray. Cognitive Neuropsychology, 21 (2004), 750-755. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/CognitiveNeuropsychology_2004_singlet.pdf
The distribution of the difference between two
t-variates and application to a test for dissociations. P H
Garthwaite and J R Crawford. Biometrika, 91 (2004), 987-994.
http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/Biometrika_2004_tvardiff.pdf
Frequent term distribution measures for dataset profiling. A DeRoeck, A Sarkar and P H Garthwaite. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Language Resources and Evaluation (LREC), edited by M T Lino, M F Xavier, F Ferreira, R Costa and R Silva. European Language Resources Assoiation (ELRA), Paris (2004), 1647-1650.
Defeating the homogeneity assumption. A DeRoeck, A Sarkar and P H Garthwaite. Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on the Statistical Analysis of TextualData (JADT), edited by G Purnelle, C Fairo and A Dister. UCL Presses Universitaries, De Louvain (2004), 282-294.
Statistical methods for single-case studies in neuropsychology: comparing the slope of a patient's regression line with those of a control sample. J R Crawford and P H Garthwaite. Cortex, 40 (2004), 533-548. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/Cortex_2004_Slopes.pdf
WANTED: Fully operational definitions of dissociations in single case studies. J R Crawford and P H Garthwaite. Cortex, 39 (2003), 357-370. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/Cortex_2003_wanted.pdf
Intra-individual measures of association in neuropsychology: Inferential methods for comparing a single case with a control or normative sample. J R Crawford, P H Garthwaite, D C Howell and A Venerri. J. International Neuropschological Society, 9 (2003), 989-1000. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/JINS_2003_Intra_Individual.pdf
Multivariate meta-analysis. N In-Sun, K Mengersen and P H Garthwaite. Statistics in Medicine, 22 (2003), 2309-2333.
Investigation of the single case in neuropsychology: confidence limits on the abnormality of test scores and test score differences. J R Crawford and P H Garthwaite. Neuropsychologia, 40 (2002), 1196-1208. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/Neuropsychologia_2002_conflims_singlecase.pdf
A simple analysis of misclassified binary data with a validation sub-study. G J Prescott and P H Garthwaite. Biometrics, 58 (2002), 454-458.
Practical use of MCMC methods: Lessons from a case study. G Zuur, P H Garthwaite and J R Fryer. Biometrical Journal, 44 (2002), 433-455.
Assessing the learning curve effect in health technologies: Lessons from the non-clinical literature. C R Ramsay, S A Wallace, P H Garthwaite, A Monk, I T Russell and A M Grant. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 18 (2002), 1-10.
Elicitation of non-conjugate prior distributions for multivariate normal sampling. P H Garthwaite and S A Al-Awadhi. J. Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 63 (2001), 95–110.
Prior distribution assessment for a multivariate normal distribution: An experimental study. S A Al-Awadhi and P H Garthwaite. J. Applied Statistics, 28 (2001) 5–23.
Regression methods for high-dimensional multicollinear data. L S Aucott, P H Garthwaite and J Curral. Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 29 (2000), 1021–1037.
Assessment of the learning curve in health technologies: a systematic review. C R Ramsay, A M Grant, S A Wallace, P H Garthwaite, A Monk and I T Russell. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 16 (2000), 1095–1108.
Quantifying expert opinion in the UK water industry: An experimental study. P H Garthwaite and A O'Hagan. Statistician, 49 (2000), 455–477.
Payne and Jones revisited: estimating the abnormality of test score differences using a modified paired samples t-test. J R Crawford, D C Howell and P H Garthwaite. Journal of Clinical and Experimental Psychology, 20 (1999) 898–905.
Age, deprivation and rates of inguinal hernia surgery in men. Is there inequity of access to healthcare? D G Seymour and P H Garthwaite. Age and Ageing, 28 (1999), 957–963.
An interlaboratory study to find an alternatives to the MPN technique for enumerating Escherichia coli in shellfish. I D Ogden, G C Brown, S Gallacher, P H Garthwaite, M Gennari, M P Gonzalez, L B Jorgenson, B T Lunestad, M Macrae, M C Nunes, A C Petersen, J T Rosnes and J Vliegenthart. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 40 (1998), 57–64.
An elicitation method for multivariate normal distributions. S A Al-Awadhi and P H Garthwaite. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 27 (1998), 1123–1142.
Wais-R subtest pattern clusters in closed head-injured and healthy samples. J R Crawford, P H Garthwaite, D A Johnson, B Mychalkiw and J W Moore. Clinical Neuropsychologist, 11 (1997), 249–257.
Quantifying and using expert opinion for variable-selection problems in regression. (Invited paper with discussion.) P H Garthwaite and J M Dickey. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 35 (1996), 1–43.
Confidence intervals from randomization tests. P H Garthwaite. Biometrics, 52 (1996), 1387–1393.
Quantifying an expert's opinion about a multivariate normal distribution. S A Abdullah and P H Garthwaite. 1995 Proceedings of the Section on Bayesian Statistical Science of the American Statistical Association, (1996), 178–183.
Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model. P H Garthwaite, K Yu and P B Hope. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 24 (1995), 2229–2247.
An elementary continuous-type nonparametric distribution estimate. J M Dickey, P H Garthwaite and G Bian. International Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, 4 (1995), 193–247.
An interpretation of partial least squares. P H Garthwaite. J. American Statistical Association, 89 (1994), 122–127.
Comparison of the value of novel rapid measurement of myoglobin, creatine kinase, and creatine kinase-MB with the electrocardiogram for the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. H S Lee, S J Cross, P H Garthwaite, A Dickie, I Ross, S Walton and K Jennings. British Heart Journal, 71 (1994), 311–315.
Assessment of prior distributions for regression models: an experimental study. P H Garthwaite. Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 23 (1994), 871–895.
The form of response of body protein accretion to dietary amino acid supply. M F Fuller and P H Garthwaite. Journal of Nutrition, 123 (1993), 957–963.
Generating Monte Carlo confidence intervals by the Robbins-Monro process. P H Garthwaite and S T Buckland. J. Royal Statistical Society, C41 (1992), 159–171.
Preposterior expected loss as a scoring rule for prior distributions. P H Garthwaite. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 21 (1992), 3601–3619.
A windowing technique for determining composition of organic substances by near-infrared reflectance. L S Aucott, S T Buckland, P H Garthwaite, I M Nevison and I Murray. Analyst, 117 (1992), 947–952.
Combining information from sets of near-infrared reflectance data: A Bayesian approach. L S Aucott and P H Garthwaite. In Making Light Work: Advances in Near Infrared Spectroscopy, edited by I Murray and I A Cowe, VCH Publishers, New York (1992), 160–169.
Elicitation of prior distributions for variable-selection problems in regression. P H Garthwaite and J M Dickey. Annals of Statistics, 20 (1992), 1697–1719.
Quantifying expert opinion for modelling fauna habitat distributions. S A Al-Awadhi and P H Garthwaite. Computational Statistics, 21 (2006), 121-140.
Comparing an individual's predicted test score from a regression equation with an obtained score: a significance and point estimate of abnormality with accompanying confidence limits. J R Crawford and P H Garthwaite. Neuropsychology, in press.
Methods of testing for a deficit in single-case studies: Evaluation of statistical power by Monte Carlo simulation. J R Crawford and P H Garthwaite. Cognitive Neuropsychology, in press. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/pdfs/PREprints/CognitiveNeuropsychology_Power_Deficits_PREPRINT.pdf
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Last Updated 14.02.2006